The news: CH Robinson expects US spot truckload costs per mile to rise about 10% in 2027, on top of about 30% this year, while freight demand stays soft.
Implications:
Budget: Flat volume won’t keep your truckload spend flat next year.
Contracts: Carriers are already winning increases on contract freight, and more loads are falling out of routing guides than in past years.
Bids: The steepest increases land in the first half of 2027.
The News
CH Robinson’s monthly Edge Report expects refrigerated and flatbed costs to climb about as fast as dry van:
Dry van: up 30% this year and 10% in 2027.
Refrigerated: up 31% this year and 11% in 2027.
Flatbed: up 28% this year and 10% in 2027.
The largest year-over-year increases come in the first half of 2027. Freight demand stays “relatively muted,” so the rise comes from trucks leaving the market.
Why It Matters
The pressure is already reaching contract freight. Carriers “continue seeking and obtaining meaningful rate increases” on contracted loads, the Edge Report says, and routing guide failures, when every contracted carrier turns a load down, climbed back above 6% after easing from a summer peak of 7.5%. So a routing guide priced on last year’s soft market sends more loads to spot, where costs are rising fastest.
Zoom In
CH Robinson’s 2027 Freight Market Outlook expects federal enforcement on driver licenses, visas and English proficiency to shrink the driver pool, while insurance, equipment and financing get more expensive for the carriers that stay. “Smaller carriers may not be able to stay in business,” the outlook says. It expects those compliance costs and higher driver pay to push contract rates up along with spot.
Pushback
Arrive Logistics expects the increases to fade faster. Its 2027 truckload forecast has dry van spot growth slowing from 46% this July to 23% in January, then running near flat through the back half of 2027, with dry van contract rates back to flat by the fourth quarter. Arrive puts the slowdown down to tougher comparisons after this year’s jumps, not a weaker market.
What It Costs
A shipper that spent $1 million on dry van spot freight in 2025, for example, would pay about $1.3 million for the same miles this year and about $1.43 million in 2027, by our math, if CH Robinson’s forecasts hold. Watch fuel too, since the Edge Report says it is taking a growing share of total spend.
Who’s Exposed
Reefer lanes: spot rates, fuel included, hit a record $3.60 a mile in September.
Northbound Mexico lanes: stricter enforcement on B-1 visas, cabotage, customs and driver qualifications could tighten truck capacity coming into the US.
Port drayage: the non-domiciled CDL rule, in force since March 16, limits which noncitizens can hold a commercial license. The outlook expects the strain to show up at specific port gateways.
Rail-ready lanes: intermodal pricing is “steady to higher” into 2027, rising faster from West Coast origins than most regions and moderately in central and eastern markets, though intermodal still costs less than truckload.
Peer Insights
When trucks got scarce, Weyerhaeuser moved freight to rail and General Mills shortened its contracts:
Weyerhaeuser: when flatbeds ran short in the US South, the lumber maker moved more volume to rail and added loading days at its mills, CEO Devin Stockfish said.
General Mills: during the pandemic capacity crunch, it added mini-bids, short contracts of three to six months, and quarterly checks on whether its rates still fit the market. Its bid process went from several months to a few weeks.
What’s Next
Early November: CH Robinson’s next monthly Edge Report updates the 2026 and 2027 forecasts.
Fourth quarter: JB Hunt reprices about 10% of its intermodal volume, the first sign of how far rail prices follow trucks.
First half of 2027: the largest year-over-year increases in CH Robinson’s forecast.
Photo: CH Robinson
