Summer drought will cut Europe’s potato harvest by more than 3.5 million tonnes, UK research group Energy and Climate Intelligence Unit estimates, across Germany, France, Belgium, the Netherlands and Great Britain. At current prices, ECIU puts the lost crop at €498 million to €818 million across the five countries.
France’s national potato growers’ union, UNPT, projects production down about 23%, which it calls the lowest yield in more than 30 years, citing repeated heatwaves, drought and irrigation restrictions this summer. UK yields are running about 11% below the five-year average, similar to the 2018 drought, per the World Potato Markets estimate ECIU cites. British wholesale potato prices have already climbed more than 40%.
Belgium, the world’s biggest exporter of frozen fries, has seen yields for its main frying variety fall about 30% from last year. Only half the crop has reached the 50mm size processors require.
Damage varies sharply by region. Some Slovenian farmers are reporting losses of 30% to 90%, Al Jazeera reports, underscoring how uneven supply could be for buyers sourcing across multiple countries.
US producer prices for frozen potato products are up about two-thirds since January 2019, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
North American frozen-potato makers Lamb Weston and McCain compete directly with Belgian and French exporters for restaurant and food-service contracts, so a shrunken European crop could shift some of that business their way.
