Maersk raises its forecast a third time as volume slips

The news

Maersk has raised its 2026 forecast for underlying operating profit (EBIT) to $8 billion to $8.5 billion, from $4.5 billion to $6.5 billion in August. This is its third forecast increase this year, following revisions in June and August.

Its average loaded freight rate rose 46.5% to $3,287 per forty-foot equivalent unit (FFE) in Q3, while loaded volumes fell 0.8% to 3.37 million FFE.
“We have been well positioned to capture this demand, with our vessel fleet operating at full capacity and demand exceeding available space on certain routes,” CEO Vincent Clerc said.

The details

Higher rates drove the earnings improvement, even as Maersk’s volumes slipped in a growing market. Global container demand grew 2% to 4% in Q3, per Maersk, while its own loaded volumes fell to 3.37 million FFE.

Maersk’s vessel utilization reached 96%, against 94% a year earlier, while its average operated fleet capacity increased 2.2%.
Lower Middle East volumes, with Hormuz still closed, were “largely offset by growth on other trade lanes,” its report stated.
Its new forecast assumes global container volumes grow about 4% in 2026.

East-West trade saw the biggest rate increase, with average loaded rates rising 64.8% YoY. But volumes on those routes fell 4.3%. Intra-regional volumes grew 6.7%, while rates rose 19.3%.

Average spot rates on the Shanghai Containerized Freight Index rose 46% from Q2, as severe typhoons in Asia caused heavy port congestion.
Global average port waiting times peaked at 16.6 hours, the highest since January 2023.

Maersk’s average loaded freight rate per forty-foot container, Q3 2025 to Q3 2026: East-West $2,204 to $3,631, North-South $3,038 to $4,104, intra-regional $1,427 to $1,703, all routes $2,244 to $3,287.

Costs rose too, but at a much slower rate than freight revenue. Maersk’s unit cost at a fixed energy price rose 4.8% to $2,437 per FFE, reflecting higher costs from the Hormuz disruption and terminal congestion.

Its average bunker price rose 49% to $798 per tonne, while bunker consumption fell 6.3%, partly helped by a partial return to the Suez Canal.
Maersk ordered 26 dual-fuel ships, each with capacity for 18,600 TEU, for delivery in 2029 and 2030.

What peers are doing

Hapag-Lloyd also raised its 2026 earnings outlook, citing stronger market demand and higher spot rates. On Sept 28, it raised its EBIT forecast to $1.25 billion to $1.75 billion, from $100 million to $1.1 billion.