Last holiday season, retail sales grew 3.1% to $972 billion, short of the 3.7% to 4.2% range the National Retail Federation had forecast. This year’s forecast of $1.013 trillion covers November 1 through December 31.

NRF also expects retailers to hire 325,000 to 375,000 seasonal workers, in line with the roughly 356,000 they hired last year, because higher gas prices, inflation, interest rates and consumer debt are keeping them careful. Chief economist Mark Mathews called it a “low hire, low fire environment.”

The 4.2% is a dollar number, and only about half of it is more goods. Mathews said nearly half the growth should come from real spending and the rest from higher prices, so the cartons and parcels moving through DCs grow closer to 2%, by our math. A network staffed and slotted for 4.2% would be carrying about twice the volume growth NRF expects.

Imports peaked in August, so the work inside DCs is shifting from inbound to outbound. NRF’s Global Port Tracker expects November imports of 2 million TEU, down from 2.3 million in August. Jonathan Gold, NRF’s vice president for supply chain and customs policy, said “most holiday merchandise has arrived.” That leaves receiving docks quieter just as picking, packing and store replenishment ramp up.

The outbound ramp is also starting earlier, since Deloitte expects 28% of holiday budgets to be spent by the end of October, the highest share in six years, which puts part of the peak in weeks when seasonal crews are still being hired and trained.

Target has built its network around that split. Its Houston receive center sits ahead of the regional DCs, so it can hold long-lead imports and seasonal goods and ship them “closer to the time when the guest needs it,” COO Lisa Roath said. The site handles about 25 million cartons a year. More on Target’s network in our breakdown.

Warehouses start this peak smaller. US warehousing and storage employers had about 1.84 million workers in September, roughly 23,000 fewer than a year earlier, according to preliminary BLS data. They have also added fewer people for each of the last two peaks: about 14,000 between September and December last year, down from 49,000 in 2024 and 64,000 in 2019.

Seasonal hiring isn’t filling the gap. Retailers plan to hire about as many seasonal workers as last year, per NRF, and UPS is hiring 100,000, about 10,000 fewer than last year and 25,000 fewer than in 2024.