The News
UPS will raise its daily rates for Ground, Air and International services by an average net 5.9% on Dec 21, 2026, according to a rate notice on its website. That matches the 5.9% FedEx set for Jan 4 and takes effect two weeks earlier, near the end of the holiday shipping rush.
The impact “will vary according to your shipping characteristics and the terms of your UPS agreement,” UPS said. The company said the increase “helps to support ongoing expansion and capability enhancements.”
It is the same average UPS applied in each of the past three years, according to Supply Chain Dive. FedEx’s 2024, 2025 and 2026 increases were also 5.9%.
The details
Parcel analysts say the 5.9% average understates what shippers will pay. UPS has not yet published rates by service, weight or zone, and said only that “more detailed rate previews will be available at a later date.”
“Don’t plan around 5.9%,” Paul Yaussy, head of parcel contract intelligence at Loop, wrote, calling the figure “an average on base rates,” according to Supply Chain Dive.
The average covers base transportation charges only, and surcharge increases are not bound to it, the parcel audit firm Reveel noted.
FedEx’s matching 5.9% turned into a 6.49% average on 1 to 5 pound Ground packages, according to a Loop analysis. Five of FedEx’s seven major services rise more than the average.
Ground parcel cost per package at FedEx and UPS is projected to reach a record 43.3% above its January 2018 level this quarter, according to the TD Cowen/AFS Freight Index.
UPS will raise the minimum billable weight for packages that need additional handling to 50 pounds from 40.
A 30-pound package that needs additional handling bills at 40 pounds today and at 50 pounds from Dec 21, which is 25% more billable weight before the 5.9% applies, according to Glenn Gooding, founder of Gooding Supply Chain Advisors.
The change reaches a package only when both its actual and dimensional weight are under 50 pounds, Gooding wrote. Packages at 50 pounds or more are unchanged.
One carton he cited, 20 pounds and 50 by 10 by 8 inches, triggers the charge on length alone.
UPS is also adding a per-package surge fee on Ground and Ground Saver shipments from certain origin ZIP codes. It has not said which ones.
The fee applies to “Qualified” customers on or after Dec 21, according to UPS, which said details, “including the applicable origin zip codes, will be available in early November.”
Reveel flagged the fee as one that could add significant cost per package.
The lists of ZIP codes that carry Area Surcharges, and of ZIP codes assigned to certain zones, both change on Dec 21 as well.
Contracts move to the new tariff on Dec 21, and the fuel tables change seven weeks before that.
Agreements that took effect before Dec 21 start on the 2026 tariff and switch to the 2027 tariff that day, Gooding wrote. Discounts set as fixed dollar amounts lose value as surcharges rise, while discounts set as percentages keep pace.
On Nov 2, UPS’s Ground fuel surcharge rises half a percentage point at current fuel prices, Reveel said. The floor of the Ground fuel table rises to $5.80 a gallon from $4.99, and below it the surcharge falls 0.25 point for every 27-cent drop in diesel, against every 9 cents before.
About 72% of the rise in ground fuel surcharges since early 2021 came from carriers changing their tables, with the rest from diesel prices, according to AFS.
FedEx has published most of its detail and UPS has not, so the side-by-side so far covers timing and a handful of fees.
Sources: UPS, Supply Chain Dive, Loop, Gooding Supply Chain Advisors.
My notes
Long, light cartons take the biggest hit. The 5.9% is an average on base rates, while the 50-pound floor applies to specific packages. A 30-pound box that needs additional handling is billed on 25% more weight before the new rate applies.
FedEx’s detail shows how far an average can stretch. Its 5.9% became 6.49% on 1 to 5 pound Ground packages, and five of its seven major services rise more than the average. UPS has not published the same detail yet.
The surge fee is priced by origin. UPS will charge it based on where a package ships from. The ZIP list due in early November will show which shipping locations it reaches.
The form of a discount matters. A fixed-dollar concession stays flat while the surcharge under it grows. A percentage concession grows with it, a point Gooding raised.
The headline number hasn’t moved in four years. Both carriers have landed on 5.9% each time. Over the same stretch, AFS projects ground cost per package at a record 43.3% above its January 2018 level this quarter.
What’s next
UPS’s fuel tables change Nov 2 and its surge fee ZIP list is due in early November. The new rates and the 50-pound floor take effect Dec 21, and FedEx’s increase follows Jan 4.
