US freight spending up 32% in Q3 on flat shipments

The News

US shippers spent 32.1% more on freight in the third quarter than a year earlier while shipping only 0.5% more, the US Bank Freight Payment Index showed. It was the largest yearly rise in spending since 2021.

Spending rose 5.2% from the second quarter, while shipments rose 0.4%.
Shippers “are spending substantially more to move essentially the same amount of freight,” said Bob Costello, chief economist at the American Trucking Associations.

The details

Because volume barely moved, nearly all of that increase came from higher truckload rates and fuel. The index tracks truckload and less-than-truckload bills paid through US Bank, about $46 billion a year.

Contract truckload rates averaged $3.25 a mile before fuel, up 26.8% from a year earlier. Spot rates rose 43.3% to $3.11.
Fuel added 79 cents a mile on average, up 71.7%.
Diesel passed $6.50 a gallon nationally in September and hit $8.25 in California.

The gap between spending and shipments has also grown in each of the last four quarters. Spending turned up late last year, while shipments have stayed near zero since.

In the third quarter of 2025, spending fell 1.7% and shipments fell 10.7%.
By the fourth quarter, spending was up 5.2% while shipments were still down 4.9%.
In the first quarter of 2026, spending rose 21.8% on 0.6% more shipments.
In the second quarter, spending rose 28.1% while shipments fell 2.8%.

Every region paid at least 25% more, with the Southwest up the most at 51.6% even as its shipments fell 2.6%. US Bank tied the Southwest rise to tight capacity and enforcement actions that cut the number of drivers hauling domestic loads.

Southeast spending rose 32.7% on flat shipments, though the region led quarterly volume growth at 4.7%.
The West paid 31.1% more while shipping 2.1% less.
The Northeast paid 25.4% more and had the best volume gain of any region, at 2.8%.
Midwest spending rose 25.3% on 2.4% more shipments.
“Freight conditions vary by region, but cost pressure is widespread,” said Bobby Holland, director of freight business analytics at US Bank.

Carriers are pricing 2027 for the same squeeze, starting with Knight-Swift, the largest US truckload carrier. It plans to open its contract bids asking for increases in the low to mid double digits.

Knight-Swift’s own truckload revenue per mile, before fuel, rose 9.7% in the third quarter.
FedEx said fuel surcharges drove about a quarter of its 12% revenue growth last quarter. It plans to bring more linehaul in-house next year as truckload rates rise.

My notes

Fuel costs 79 cents a mile now, up from 46 cents a year ago. Shippers pay it on top of the trucking rate, and it changes when diesel prices change.