From my conversation with Roland Seckler of Ypsomed and Paul Grandy of Sphera. Read the full case study →
I asked Paul what Sphera’s customers are tracking most closely right now. He said the type of risk matters less to them than where in the supply chain it comes from.
In McKinsey’s 2025 supply chain risk survey of 100 companies, 95% could see risks at their tier one suppliers. Only 42% could see tier two or beyond.
Paul says even a full map of supplier sites leaves a gap. “Knowing that two supplier sites are connected is useful, but that alone doesn’t tell you” whether a disruption will affect your product, because many products move in and out of one factory.
So he maps risk at three levels, each one deeper than the last.
Level 1: Sites
The first level is which supplier factories connect to yours, at tier one and further upstream. This is where every team starts. Roland's piece on tier 2 and 3 suppliers covers how Ypsomed gets those addresses.
Level 2: Products
The second level is what flows between two sites. Paul says you need to know which materials and components move between them, and how they connect to your own products.
A factory upstream may supply your direct supplier with the part that goes into your product. It may also supply something completely unrelated. “Finding those hidden dependencies is what is becoming more and more important for companies,” Paul says.
Level 3: Raw materials
Raw materials are the third level. When a raw material runs short, every product that uses it is exposed. Paul says that’s the reason Ypsomed keeps emergency stock.
Roland has seen it happen. During COVID, the big resin makers took their plants down for maintenance for three months, where they’d normally stop for about four weeks. When they came back, there wasn’t enough resin to go around. Ypsomed needs a special medical grade. Automotive makers bought that grade at much higher prices. That left Ypsomed in a bottleneck.
Ypsomed wasn’t alone. In April 2022, Baxter told hospitals it was short of some valve sets. “We can’t make our normal amount because we don't have enough resin,” a Baxter spokesperson said.
What this means for sourcing
Paul says this kind of mapping is starting to change how companies choose suppliers. Sourcing has been about cost and efficiency. He says the next question is how much exposure each choice creates. He breaks that into three questions:
Where is supply concentrated?
Which dependencies are shared?
How much room do you have to switch when conditions change?
That’s also pulling more people in. “It’s not just a procurement or a supply chain issue, it’s a company issue,” Paul says. He sees roles that never used to take part now joining Sphera’s sales calls and clients' annual reviews.
Before you apply this
Product-level mapping needs your bills of materials linked to supplier sites. Start with one product your business can’t run without, and trace its top three materials back to where they’re made.
More from this conversation:
