Canada’s US ambassador said the near-term priority is securing relief from the 50% steel, 50% aluminum, and 25% auto tariffs, not renewing USMCA. For operators sourcing Canadian metal, vehicles or lumber, that means planning the rest of the year as if current rates hold.
What he said: Mark Wiseman told a Canadian Club Toronto event on June 15 that the Section 232 tariffs are “biting” and “arguably in violation of CUSMA,” while the deal itself stays intact. His message was that the agreement continues through 2036 regardless of when, or whether, the review concludes.
Canada is the top US supplier of both metals and accounts for about 40% of US aluminum imports. That means the tariffs fall hardest on US manufacturers buying from Canada.
Why renewal is the wrong worry: The July 1 joint review is not an expiry point. The deal remains in force through 2036 unless all three parties withdraw. A quick sectoral deal was attempted and then stalled last fall.
The tariffs that actually change landed cost remain in effect. Steel and aluminum face 50% tariffs, autos face 25%, and softwood lumber faces 35%. These rates apply even to USMCA-compliant goods and are not tied to the review timeline.
The one hard deadline: The fallback 10% global tariff on non-USMCA goods (Section 122) carries a 150-day statutory cap that expires July 24 unless extended, a rate change in roughly five weeks for anything not certified compliant.
Compliant goods are exempt, which makes documentation the cheapest hedge available.
Where the exposure sits: Three levers decide your Q3-Q4 landed cost:
Certificates of origin are the most accessible fix right now, with CBP increasing origin-verification scrutiny ahead of July 1
USMCA compliance on every cross-border SKU is the hedge against the 10% Section 122 rate
Chinese-origin inputs in North American assembled goods are the harder problem. The US-Mexico bilateral talks (Round 2 is in Washington on June 16-17, with Canada not at the table) are negotiating higher regional-value-content thresholds that could raise the cost of staying compliant
Q3 and Q4 contracts priced on the assumption that 50%, 25%, and 35% rates remain in place are the conservative approach. Near-term tariff relief is not the base case.
What's next: The US-Mexico talks are where the RVC and Chinese-content terms that reshape compliance economics are likely to land. July 24 is the first concrete rate-change date. That’s when the Section 122 fallback either expires or gets extended.
