The news: Duties on most Canadian softwood lumber drop to 24.75% from 35.16% for lumber entered from Oct. 19, but lumber that came in during 2024 now owes more.
Implications:
Cheaper loads: New Canadian lumber pays about 10 percentage points less in duty, though the separate 10% tariff stays.
A 2024 bill: If you imported Canadian lumber in 2024, expect a bill for the gap plus interest.
Mills pay too: Big mills that bring in their own lumber carry the bill themselves. West Fraser booked a $73 million charge toward its 2024 bill.
The News
The Commerce Department cut the combined antidumping and anti-subsidy duty on lumber from most Canadian mills to 24.75% from 35.16%, for lumber entered from Oct. 19. With the separate 10% Section 232 tariff on lumber, the total charge at the border falls to 34.75% from 45.16%.
Most of the drop came on the antidumping side, which fell to 10.64% from 20.53% because the dumping margins Commerce calculated for Canfor and West Fraser, two of the three mills it examined, roughly halved. The anti-subsidy rate barely moved, to 14.11% from 14.63%, in its separate notice. Canadian mills still object, and Kim Haakstad, interim president of the BC Lumber Trade Council, said producers still face “unjustified and punitive trade measures.”
Why It Matters
The lower rate only covers new lumber, and the same ruling raises what 2024 lumber owes. Lumber that crossed in 2024 paid deposits of 8.05% to about 14.4%, and its final rate is now 24.75%, so whoever imported it owes the difference plus interest.
Zoom In
Duty deposits are estimates that importers pay when the lumber crosses, and Commerce sets the final rate a year or more later, after it reviews the mills’ prices and subsidies for that year. For most of 2024, Canadian lumber entered at an 8.05% deposit, which rose to about 14.4% in late summer after the previous review.
The new rates also differ by mill, according to Global Affairs Canada:
West Fraser: 20.02%, down from 26.47%.
Resolute: 25.55%.
Canfor: 31.11%, down from 47.59%.
Most other mills: 24.75%, including Interfor and Weyerhaeuser’s Canadian lumber.
What It Costs
For example, $10,000 of Canadian lumber that crossed in early 2024 paid $805 in deposits. At the final 24.75% rate it owes $2,475, so the importer now owes about $1,670 more, plus interest, by our math. The same load crossing after Oct. 19 pays $3,475 at the border, counting the 10% tariff, which is about $1,040 less than before.
That puts lumber from 2024 at roughly three times its early-2024 deposit.
Lumber itself still costs more than a year ago. The producer price index rose 14.2% for softwood lumber and 8.7% for wood pallets in the year to September, so a smaller duty may not show up as a cheaper pallet right away.
Who’s Exposed
The 2024 bill goes to the importer of record, the company that brought the lumber across, so who pays depends on how your lumber was bought:
Canadian mills that import their own lumber: they pay the deposits and the final bill. West Fraser booked a $73 million charge in the first quarter for the anti-subsidy gap on its 2024 shipments, based on the preliminary rate.
US distributors, pallet makers and truss plants that import directly: they get the bill from US Customs and Border Protection, with interest.
Buyers whose mill or distributor did the importing: they won’t get a bill from Customs, but their supply contract decides whether the supplier can pass the charge along.
Importers of 2025 lumber: they may be owed money later. Lumber entered from late summer 2025 paid a deposit of about 35%, so if the next review settles near today’s rate, they get some back.
What’s Next
Oct. 19: the new deposit rates apply to lumber entered from this date on.
Nov. 29 at the earliest: Commerce can tell Customs to send final bills on 2024 lumber.
The next review: Commerce is already reviewing lumber imported in 2025, with West Fraser and Resolute as the mills it examines.
Dig Deeper
Our earlier piece: Canada targets tariff relief over USMCA renewal, on where Canada’s tariff talks stood.
The builders’ view: NAHB wants all building-material tariffs suspended and a new lumber agreement with Canada.
