Class 8 truck orders fall 36% as EPA 2027 rule lingers

The news

North American Class 8 truck orders fell 36% from a year earlier to 15,600 in October, FTR Transportation Intelligence’s preliminary count shows. That was nearly 50% below the 10-year October average of 31,089.

Orders for the year are still up 74% to 278,201, following a rush by fleets to buy trucks ahead of the 2027 emissions rules.
Dan Moyer, FTR’s senior analyst for commercial vehicles, said orders “are increasingly tied to fleet profitability, capital spending priorities, and regulatory certainty.”

The details

October had the lowest order total of the year, down from February’s peak of 47,200. Fleets had brought purchases forward to secure trucks before the 2027 engine rules take effect. By early August, FTR said production capacity for calendar 2026 was "essentially sold out."

Monthly orders have stayed at or below 22,000 since July.
Orders fell 24% from September.

North American Class 8 net orders by month in 2026, in thousands: 32.5 in January, 47.2 in February, 38.2 in March, 25.5 in April, 26.6 in May, 30.5 in June, 22.0 in July, 18.2 in August, 21.3 in September and 15.6 in October.

The orders now being placed are for 2027-model trucks, which will be built under an EPA rule that is still being finalized. In July, the EPA proposed keeping its tighter 2027 nitrogen oxide limits while easing other requirements. The proposal would restore emissions warranties to 2026 levels and delay longer useful-life requirements until model year 2030.

The EPA estimates buyers could save up to $6,000 per diesel truck in warranty costs.
Engine makers could pay nonconformance penalties and continue selling current engines while developing compliant models.
The proposal would replace forced engine slowdowns triggered by exhaust treatment systems with visible or audible alerts.

Until the rule is final, fleets face uncertainty over the price of 2027 trucks. Moyer estimated that passing nonconformance penalties on to buyers could add $6,000 to $7,000 per truck. A fully compliant engine could cost $8,000 to $12,000 more.

“I’m hearing we’re not going to get it in November,” Rush Enterprises CEO Rusty Rush said of the final rule.
Cummins has asked the EPA to finalize the changes in time for engine makers to launch 2027 engines by Jan. 1.
Moyer said “some purchases may be deferred rather than canceled.”

Worth noting

Fleets are spending more on trailers even as truck orders weaken. September trailer orders were the highest since December 2022. US trailer orders jumped 385% from a year earlier to 43,059, according to FTR. The firm attributes part of the shift to the end of the truck pre-buy and uncertainty over the 2027 rule. Some carriers may also be ordering trailers ahead of expected tariff-related price increases.