Iran re-declared the Strait of Hormuz closed within days of agreeing with the US to extend a ceasefire. Transit fell to five vessels on the latest count from 26 the day before. Drewry’s composite container rate climbed to $3,969 per 40-foot box, an 18-month high and up 12% week over week.
The war-risk and emergency surcharges carriers stacked on during the earlier closure remain in place. Shippers are absorbing a cost increase that predates the diplomatic reversal, and pricing has not changed since.
What's contested: The closure itself remains disputed. Iran says the Strait is shut and insurers are pricing it that way, Chubb CEO Evan Greenberg told gCaptain that mine risk makes passage “day to day, hour to hour.”
US CENTCOM disputes the closure and says commercial traffic is still moving. Either way, the rate and surcharge have already reset, and that is what shows up on a shipper’s invoice.
The surcharge stack: Carriers layered on emergency and war-risk fees during the earlier closure. They remained in place despite the diplomatic reversal:
Hapag-Lloyd: a war-risk surcharge of $1,500 per TEU on Gulf cargo
CMA CGM: an emergency conflict surcharge of about $2,000 per TEU
MSC: a war-risk fee of $2,000 per 20-foot box, $3,000 per 40-foot
Maersk: an emergency freight surcharge of up to $3,800 per container, $3,000 per 40-foot dry box and $1,800 per 20-foot
New peak-season charges are landing on top: Maersk added a $600 peak-season surcharge per 40-foot box on Asia-Europe routes. The Journal of Commerce estimates contracted fuel surcharges will jump about 80% at the mid-year bunker reset.
Maersk CEO Vincent Clerc said the carrier is paying about $500M a month in extra fuel costs and is recovering it through higher rates and surcharges. Bunker prices have climbed from about $600 a ton before the conflict to near $1,000.
The surcharge ratchet: An analysis of carrier behavior since 2020 shows the same playbook each time – across Covid-19, the Ever Given grounding, the Red Sea diversions, and now Hormuz. Carriers declare a surcharge within 48 to 72 hours, keep it in place after the disruption eases, then fold it into a higher baseline contract rate in the next cycle. No escalation in 18 months has led to a full rollback.
Among large North American importers, only two have publicly quantified the impact:
Walmart: absorbed $175M in fuel costs in Q1
Chewy: reported a low single digit million hit in Q1, and guided to a mid-single digit million hit in Q2
Where cargo is moving: Shippers are routing around the chokepoint. DHL, Oman Air and GWC are expanding a Gulf land bridge corridor, according to The Loadstar. ADNOC and Kuwait Petroleum Corp are tendering crude with loading options from both inside and outside the Strait to split the routing risk. Yang Ming has shifted Asia-Europe sailings to the Cape of Good Hope.
Drewry expects rates to keep climbing as peak-season cargo is pulled forward ahead of the mid-year bunker adjustment.
