After the 2025 ocean alliance reshuffle, the three carrier groupings diverge sharply on on-time performance. The gap runs to 17 percentage points between Gemini and Ocean Alliance. Schedule reliability has become the clearest point of differentiation.
How the alliances break down: Gemini Cooperation, made up of Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd, runs a hub-and-spoke model designed around schedule reliability. Gemini’s on-time rate sits at roughly 85%, compared with about 73% for standalone MSC, and 68% for Ocean Alliance which includes CMA CGM, COSCO, Evergreen and OOCL.
The industry average is about 62%, so even Ocean Alliance remains above it. Across the transpacific, overall on-time performance fell to about 29% in early 2026, the lowest level in a year, according to Xeneta.
The industry average is about 62%, so even Ocean Alliance remains above it. Across the transpacific, overall on-time performance fell to about 29% in early 2026, the lowest level in a year, according to Xeneta.
The catch on Gemini: Gemini is actively reshaping the lanes it serves. The alliance has pulled capacity away from Asia-North Europe. Its share fell from about 25.7% in mid-May to 22.5% by June 2026 to fund expansion in the Mediterranean, where its Asia-Med share is projected to approach 30%.
Shippers on Asia-North Europe who chose Gemini for its reliability premium are now seeing smaller ships and fewer weekly calls on that corridor. Ocean Alliance is moving the other way and consolidating there, with share nearing 40% and 22 transpacific services.
MSC, now the world’s largest carrier at about 21.6% of global capacity, is building around direct calls. CEO Soren Toft has described the strategy as prioritizing clients’ need for a direct destination call, backed by a standalone network of roughly 1,900 direct port pairs. Where Gemini routes through hubs, MSC runs direct port-to-port.
By lane:
Asia-North Europe: Gemini still leads on reliability but is pulling capacity to fund the Mediterranean, leaving fewer weekly calls and smaller vessels. Ocean Alliance's share is climbing toward 40%
Transpacific: Gemini holds the widest reliability lead at roughly 17 points over Ocean Alliance. Overall on-time performance on the lane sank to about 29% in early 2026, its lowest level in a year. Ocean Alliance runs 22 services there
Direct calls: MSC's roughly 1,900 direct port pairs make up the broadest port-to-port network, bypassing hub transfers
What's next: Rates are climbing across all three alliances. Drewry’s World Container Index hit about $3,969 per FEU, up roughly 12% in a single week and its highest level in 18 months, as peak-season general rate increases take effect. All three groups are raising surcharges in lockstep.
