Iranian missiles struck two UAE oil tankers in the Strait of Hormuz, killing one crew member. The attack landed days after Asia-US ocean container rates more than doubled since late February. It could keep rates high after Freightos said the spike was close to cresting.
The rate picture: Week-over-week moves have flattened even at these elevated levels, according to Xeneta’s latest weekly read. The four main lanes out of the Far East are:
US West Coast: $7,069/FEU, up 276% since late February
US East Coast: $8,808/FEU, up 232%
North Europe: $5,503/FEU, up 148%
Mediterranean: $6,855/FEU, up 106%
The causation split: Analysts disagree on what is driving the surge. Xeneta chief analyst Peter Sand ties the spike to the Hormuz crisis, which he says has left the strait “effectively closed to container shipping,” even as carriers keep adding capacity. He said the market has “paused for breath.”
Freightos research head Judah Levine credits tariff-driven frontloading and Q3 manufacturer price hikes. He predicted the peak could unwind within weeks.
The demand read: July US imports are forecast to hit a record 2.47M TEU, then fall every month through November, according to the NRF and Hackett Associates. NRF’s Jonathan Gold tied the early peak to retailers stocking up ahead of potentially higher tariffs beginning in August, citing continued supply-chain impacts from the Iran conflict.
What's next: Carriers are still adding capacity. The four-week average is up 5.5% on the US West Coast, according to Xeneta. The same forecast put July imports at a record, and shows volumes falling every month after. Both point toward easing rates. The Hormuz risk could keep them high.
