The Port of Los Angeles moved 449,370 loaded import TEUs in May, up 26% year over year, but its year-to-date total is up only 1.4%. That gap explains what is happening. The surge is frontloaded cargo, and frontloaded peaks tend to fade fast.
By the numbers: May volumes the port reported:
Total: 840,165 TEUs, up 17% YoY
Loaded imports: 449,370 TEUs, up 26%
Loaded exports: 107,657 TEUs, down 10%
Empties: 283,138 TEUs, up 18%
Year to date: 4,119,869 TEUs, up just 1.4%
Why it’s spiking: The strong month reflects importers reacting to tariff and trade-policy uncertainty, not stronger consumer demand. Executive director Gene Seroka tied the jump to frontloading and “shorter planning horizons.” Companies, he said, are “taking advantage of opportunities when they emerge.” The 18% rise in empties points in the same direction, with containers being repositioned to load more cargo ahead of schedule.
The catch: A pulled-forward peak means a softer fall. The NRF and Hackett Associates’ Global Port Tracker expects national imports to peak in June at around 14.3% above last year, then turn negative for several months, falling 8.4% in July and 8.6% in August. Retailers are bringing peak-season cargo in early to dodge rising costs, analyst Ben Hackett said, after which “we expect a weakening.”
What to watch: The year-to-date line tells the real story. Through May, volumes are up just 1.4%, suggesting the jump reflects timing more than broad demand recovery. DC and labor planners are facing an earlier, more compressed peak, with volumes likely to fade by Q3 instead of extending into the usual fall ramp.
A prior Port of LA report showed China’s share declining, and NRF had already flagged June as the peak. May'‘s numbers reinforce that view.
