Transpacific ocean rates flatten as Asia-Europe rates rise

The News

Spot rates for containers from Asia to the US were flat last week, while rates from Asia to North Europe rose 6.8%, according to Xeneta.

“This confirms the US trades have peaked and we expect them to soften through the remainder of 2026,” said Peter Sand, Xeneta’s chief analyst.
Asia to the US West Coast was $8,311 per 40-foot container, and Asia to the East Coast was $11,525. Both rose 0.2%.

US-bound rates are still more than four times their level before the Hormuz crisis began in late February, according to Xeneta.

Asia to the US West Coast is up 342% since then, and Asia to the East Coast is up 335%. Asia to North Europe is up 67%.
Since July 1, West Coast rates have risen 18.9% and East Coast rates 31.7%. Asia to North Europe rates have fallen 33.2%.

Sand says strong demand is pushing Europe rates back up. Volumes from Asia to Europe rose 12.2% in the first seven months of the year.

Drewry’s World Container Index put Shanghai to Rotterdam at $3,632 per 40-foot container, up 3%. Drewry expects Asia-Europe rates to “increase slightly next week amid tight capacity.”
Rates rose even as carriers returned services to the Red Sea, which frees up ships. “This is a conundrum because the release of capacity into the global fleet should ease pressure on rates, but we are seeing the opposite,” Sand said.

The other major indexes also show the transpacific climb has stopped.

Drewry had Shanghai to Los Angeles at $8,007, up 2%. It expects transpacific rates to stay stable next week.
Freightos called transpacific rates “stable but still highly elevated” and cited “expectations that volumes are finally cooling.”

The decline Xeneta expects would come while importers negotiate 2027 transpacific contracts. Those contracts usually start on May 1.

In early October, Sand projected that West Coast spot rates could fall to about $4,500 to $5,500 within three months.
Xeneta said in September that shippers about to tender 2027 volumes are in “an uneasy position” because spot rates are so high.

Even a big drop would leave US rates high. Sand projected in early October that West Coast spot rates could fall to about $4,500 to $5,500 within three months. The West Coast rate today is more than four times its level before the Hormuz crisis, so that drop would still leave it well above where it started.
Importers start bidding 2027 contracts as US rates soften. In September, Xeneta said shippers about to tender 2027 volumes were in an uneasy position because spot rates were so high. Sand now expects US rates to soften through the rest of 2026, the same months those tenders get underway.
More ships did not bring Europe rates down. Carriers are sending services back through the Red Sea, which frees up capacity, yet Asia to North Europe rates rose 6.8% in a week. Sand puts it down to demand, with volumes on the lane up 12.2% in the first seven months of the year.