The News
President Donald Trump said Nov. 1 that the US and Canada have “the concept of a deal” that would include Canada building and paying for the Keystone XL pipeline. Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney said negotiators will work “in the coming weeks” to turn the proposal into a deal.
The original Keystone XL was designed to carry 830,000 barrels of crude a day from Alberta to Nebraska, connecting there to pipelines serving Cushing, Oklahoma, and Gulf Coast refineries.
“We're going to give them the route, and it's largely been determined,” Trump said.
The details
Neither country is lifting its tariffs while negotiations continue. The US has imposed 50% tariffs on about $20 billion of Canadian goods since Aug 22. Canada has retaliated with tariffs on roughly $20 billion of US goods.
Separate US tariffs on Canadian steel and autos also remain in place. Ottawa had reported limited progress in negotiations to ease those duties before Trump's remarks.
The White House last changed the list of goods covered by the 50% tariffs on Oct 30.
An importer has asked the Court of International Trade to strike down the 50% tariffs and order refunds for all importers that paid them.
Keystone XL has been stalled since President Joe Biden revoked its permit in 2021. Developer TC Energy later abandoned the project and spun off its crude pipeline business as South Bow.
Trump signed a permit in April for Bridger Pipeline to transport about 550,000 barrels of Canadian crude a day to Guernsey, Wyoming. The proposed Montana border crossing is near the one planned for Keystone XL.
South Bow and Bridger have proposed the Prairie Connector, which would reuse Keystone XL pipe already laid in Canada. South Bow plans to decide in 2027 whether to proceed.
South Bow CEO Bevin Wirzba said in May that the company would wait for proof that the US permit is “durable” before committing to the project.
Worth noting
US crude imports from Canada set a record in 2024 without Keystone XL. They averaged 4.06 million barrels a day that year and 3.91 million in 2025.
Canada, the world's fourth-largest oil exporter, sends more than 90% of its crude production to the US. A line built on the Bridger permit could raise Canada's crude exports to the US by more than 12%.
What's next
Carney says negotiators will work on the proposed deal in the coming weeks. South Bow expects to decide in 2027 whether to build the Prairie Connector.
(Photo: Courtesy of CN)
