Air cargo spot rates averaged $3.40 per kilo in June, up 38% from a year ago. But growth is slowing, down from 41% in May, the second straight month of cooling and in line with the peak flagged last month.
The market is still pricey, but it is no longer accelerating. The mix of what’s hot has shifted, which changes where the pain lands.
What's driving it now: The cargo filling planes has flipped. For two years, cross-border e-commerce (think Shein and Temu) drove demand. Now, it is AI servers and semiconductors. Global chip sales more than doubled in April, the biggest jump on record since 1986. This has made the transpacific the hottest lane of the year, even as China-to-US volumes fell under tariffs. Traffic from Northeast and Southeast Asia into North America is up more than 40% since late February.
The squeeze underneath: Demand grew 7% year over year in June while capacity grew just 3%. Planes are flying fuller, with the load factor reaching 62%. This is why rates stay high even as growth eases.
The Middle East angle: Gulf routes are cooling month to month as capacity returns after the disruption. Even so, rates are well above normal. On the ocean side, Gulf surcharges are still holding, so air freight is recovering faster than water.
How shippers are buying: Nobody wants to lock in long at these prices.
Short contracts (three months or less) jumped to 58% of new deals, from 22% a year ago
Spot now moves 49% of air cargo weight, up from 34% before the pandemic
What to watch: Rates have cooled for two months running, but the market now rides on one narrow demand base: AI chips.
