DHL Group raised its 2026 earnings guidance in preliminary Q2 results, with group operating profit up about 29% to roughly €1,850 million, and full-year EBIT now expected to top €6.5 billion.
The earnings beat rode almost entirely on tight air freight capacity. DHL said about €150 million of Express profit came from air freight capacity constraints during the quarter. The same scarcity that is pushing up shipper rates is showing up as profit on the carrier’s side of the ledger.
Where it came from: The gains were concentrated in DHL Express, not across its portfolio. Express EBIT climbed 64% to €1,195 million, credited to the air capacity effect plus continued savings from the group's Fit for Growth cost program. Global Forwarding, DHL's air and ocean brokerage arm, added 22% to €240 million on managing market disruption.
The rest of the business was flat or down:
Supply Chain EBIT fell 12% to €305 million
eCommerce dropped 11%
Post & Parcel Germany fell 19%
The capacity math: DHL’s nine figure gain from scarce air freight reflects broader market conditions.
Air freighter capacity out of the Gulf has been squeezed by disruption linked to the Iran conflict. The Freightos Air Index is running about 40% above year ago levels. Air rates aren’t easing, and DHL’s own numbers show a carrier now profiting from the same constraint that shippers are paying into.
The catch: DHL said its raised guidance holds only “assuming no further worsening of the geopolitical situation,” a caution it has carried all year. Shares fell about 2.5% on the day despite the earnings beat as investors weighed how much of the lift is a one-off capacity windfall.
Across the sector: Other logistics companies are seeing the opposite effect. Swiss forwarder Kuehne+Nagel reported group EBIT fell about 13% in FY2024 in an oversupplied market with no pricing power. DHL Express, by contrast, lifted EBIT 64% as limited air freight capacity pushed pricing higher. The company will release its full Q2 report and hold its earnings call in August.
