US ports are on track to move 2.47 million TEU in July, a new all-time monthly record that tops the 2.4 million TEU pandemic peak set in May 2022, according to the latest NRF/Hackett Global Port Tracker.
One month ago, the same tracker had forecast July imports at 2.19 million TEU, an 8.4% year-over-year drop. The forecast has since jumped by roughly 280,000 TEU in a single revision. The pull forward also has a firm end date.
Why now: A temporary 10% global import surcharge under Section 122 hits a 150-day statutory cap on July 24 and cannot be extended without Congress. USTR has a Section 301 replacement queued for August, with two tiers: 10% on 14 economies including Canada, Mexico and the EU, and 12.5% on 46 others including China, Vietnam and India. Every box landing before July 24 clears at the lower rate, so importers are racing the deadline.
The cost math: Spot rates have climbed sharply in recent weeks as frontloading repriced the transpacific, according to Supply Chain Dive and Xeneta data.
Asia to US West Coast: About $6,200/FEU, up 120% since mid-May
Asia to US East Coast: About $8,000/FEU, up 85% in six weeks
Carriers are adding record capacity to meet demand. The four week rolling average is about 350,000 TEU. They have also brought back suspended services and added extra loaders.
“Carriers are scrambling to satisfy it,” Xeneta chief analyst Peter Sand said, adding that the added capacity “is not enough to reverse the upwards trend.”
No congestion: Record volumes are not backing up the gateways. The Marine Exchange of Southern California counted just two container ships at anchor off Los Angeles and Long Beach, with none expected in the coming week. The surge is arriving into open berths.
Beyond July, the port tracker expects the cliff to return. August imports are forecast at 2.22 million TEU, down 4.5% year over year. Volumes then fall below 2 million TEU months through November as the pull-forward unwinds.
