The Port of Los Angeles moved 840,165 TEUs in May, up 17% year over year. It projects more than 900,000 units in June as shippers race to close a frontloading cycle that director Gene Seroka calls a “window of stability.” National forecasts suggest that window is closing right after the June peak.
Why now: Importers are pulling cargo forward to get ahead of a wave of cost increases set to land in July. The Section 122 global 10% tariff surcharge expires July 24, with Sections 301 and 232 positioned as replacement tools Carrier bunker fuel surcharge resets take effect July 1. The Hormuz re-closure adds fresh routing and cost pressure.
The volume reflects a rebound from the early-2026 tariff trough, not new demand. Year-to-date, the port is nearly flat at 4.12M TEUs, up just 1.4%. Empty-container moves rose 18% as carriers reposition boxes for more inbound cargo. Long Beach surged too, to 842,030 TEUs, with loaded imports up 40%.
The cliff: The frontload peaks in June, then reverses, according to the NRF Global Port Tracker national forecast:
June: 2.25M TEUs (+14.3% YoY)
July: 2.19M TEUs (-8.4%)
August: 2.12M TEUs (-8.6%)
September: 2.06M TEUs (-2.2%)
The surge “will likely last into July, with an early peak season,” Hackett Associates’ Ben Hackett said. NRF’s Jonathan Gold tied the June bump to retailers “bringing in merchandise early because of higher costs from tariffs or fuel prices that could come starting in August.”
The bottleneck moves inland: Drayage and warehouse capacity become the constraint once containers arrive. “Inland coordination, not terminal congestion, is becoming the larger planning challenge,” C.H. Robinson said in its June freight market update.
Across the sector: Retailers are responding to the same conditions in different ways.
Costco built inventory through the quarter
Dollar General moved the other way, with per-store inventory down 1.6%
June’s national TEU forecast is the highest of the year; every month after it shows a decline.
