The US goods-trade deficit widened to $105.8 billion in May, its largest in more than a year. The driver wasn’t retailers stocking up ahead of tariffs, it was AI hardware.
What's driving it: Capital goods imports, the category that includes servers, GPUs, and data center gear, hit $127.5 billion, up 41.9% from a year ago, with Taiwan the main source.
Consumer goods imports actually fell 9.1%. The transpacific capacity crunch operators see appears tied to AI shippers, not a broad retail pull-forward.
The split:
Capital goods: $127.5B, up 41.9% YoY
Consumer goods: $59.5B, down 9.1% YoY
Automotive: $36.9B, up 1.4% YoY
One caveat: This is the advance Census estimate for goods only. Services typically run a roughly $27 billion surplus, so next month’s full figure should come in lower.
Why it matters: June is the import peak, and the cliff follows.
The NRF/Hackett tracker expects national volume to rise 14.3% in June, then decline each month into fall. Inventories are already building, with wholesale up 4.3% and retail up 3.4%, which suggests front-loaded goods are stacking not selling through. Spot rates show the squeeze: truckload freight PPI is up 21.1% YoY, a 24-month high, and Drewry's index hit $4,166 per FEU.
