US retailers pulled China orders forward four to six weeks to lock in holiday inventory before an expected tariff hike, lifting China-to-US imports 35% year over year in May, Reuters reported. That’s up from 11% in April and a contraction in March.
The freight and stockpiling costs of the 2026 peak season are landing now instead of in the fall. Rates are still climbing.
What's driving it: The rush is for holiday and event goods, not routine restocking. Importers are bringing in back-to-school apparel, early Christmas inventory and World Cup merchandise such as jerseys, flags and even big-screen TVs.
“There is an expectation that tariffs could be raised again, or restored to previous levels, so everyone is rushing to get goods in before that happens,” said Tony Meng, a China-based senior sales manager at shipping firm XPD Global.
What it did to rates: Front-loading tightened transpacific capacity and pushed spot rates up week over week. Drewry’s latest World Container Index showed:
Shanghai-New York: $7,902 per FEU, up 11% on the week
Shanghai-Los Angeles: $6,349 per FEU
Composite index: $4,530, up 9%.
Rates kept climbing after Reuters cited a $7,149 Shanghai-New York read a week earlier. Maersk said space had been “tightening on the China-US route since mid-May.”
The skeptic's read: Not everyone sees stronger demand. Kyle Henderson, CEO of container-tracker Vizion, calls US demand "normal-to-soft,” and said it remains below its three-year average. He argued that higher rates reflect “capacity management by transport firms more than surging U.S. demand,” pointing to canceled sailings. He expects volumes to drop after July as landed inventory works down. In that read, the rush is followed by an air pocket, not a smooth peak.
What's next: The Section 122 tariff floor, the “universal 10% U.S. tariff imposed by Washington in February” according to Reuters, expires around July 24. USTR's Section 301 forced-labor tariff hearing is set for July 7, with comments due July 6 and a decision expected in the coming months.
