The US will not renew USMCA in its current form, US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer confirmed. Instead, the pact will move to annual reviews rather than a single 16-year extension.
Duty treatment does not change now. USMCA-qualifying goods will continue to cross tariff-free while the US negotiates separately with Mexico and Canada into 2027.
What was decided: USMCA does not expire. At its six-year joint review, all three countries could have agreed to renew the deal and reset it for another 16 years. The US declined. The agreement now enters mandatory annual reviews and can remain in force up to another 10 years unless a country gives six months’ notice to withdraw.
“The US did not agree to renew the USMCA in its current form,” Greer said.
What changes for importers: For now, nothing. Goods that meet USMCA’s rules of origin, which determines what qualifies as North American, keep flowing duty-free. The immediate focus remains compliance with the current 75% regional value content rule for autos. It requires three-quarters of a vehicle's value to come from within the bloc.
The US is pushing to raise that threshold to 82% and add a requirement that 50% of a vehicle's content come from the US. Mexico opposes the proposal. It has also raised concerns among automakers, including GM, which is expanding in Mexico.
What to watch:
The next US-Mexico talks are set for the week of July 20 in Mexico City. They will focus on auto rules and metals. Talks with Canada have not yet begun.
The separate Section 122 tariff surcharge cap expires around July 24, 150 days after the White House imposed a 10% import duty.
The Retail Industry Leaders Association urged negotiators to preserve “duty-free treatment for USMCA-qualifying goods.”
