Asia-to-US ocean container spot rates have more than doubled since the Iran war began, forcing freight buyers to make the contract-versus-spot call months earlier than they planned.
By the numbers:
US West Coast: $3,933/FEU as of June 5, up 109% since Feb 28, per Xeneta
US East Coast: $5,103/FEU, up 92%
Why it's spiking: The surge is supply-driven before it is demand-driven. Reroutes around the Strait of Hormuz have lengthened voyages and pushed up fuel, and the diverted ships are piling into Southeast Asian transshipment hubs like Singapore and Port Klang, where the congestion ripples out to lanes far from the Gulf.
Peak-season front-loading is now stacking on top, as importers pull orders forward to beat both the rate climb and any further disruption. Drewry's composite index just hit a one-year high, and carriers are trimming the space they had set aside for contract customers so they can resell it on the spot market at a premium.
What it means for shippers: The squeeze is already reaching importers who thought they were covered. As carriers cut contracted allocations, a fixed rate no longer guarantees the space behind it, and shippers are being pushed onto pricier spot moves to keep freight flowing.
The live question is timing: lock more volume under contract now and risk paying above budget, or wait and risk spot rates dragging the next contract round higher still. Xeneta's Peter Sand frames the risk plainly: "carriers will look to push rates higher and higher, so the market may yet be far from its peak."
What's next: With oil expected to stay elevated into the second half and the reroutes showing no quick fix, the pressure on transpacific capacity looks set to hold through peak season.
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