The US and Iran are reportedly close to an interim deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, possibly signed as soon as Sunday in Geneva ahead of the G7 summit, Bloomberg reported Friday - the first concrete opening to unwind the freight-cost shock shippers have carried since February.
What's confirmed, what isn't: Trump cancelled planned strikes Thursday and called a deal "all but done," with a 60-day ceasefire reportedly in place.
gCaptain reports the draft would have Iran clear mines and restore normal transit within roughly 30 days of signing, with Qatar and Pakistan mediating. But Iran's foreign ministry spokesman Esmaeil Baghaei called the reports "merely speculation" Thursday, saying Tehran has not reached a final decision. Nothing is signed.
The stakes: About 20% of the world's seaborne oil and LNG moves through Hormuz, and it has been effectively closed for roughly 104 days.
Daily crossings are down about 95% from pre-conflict levels. Iran has charged transit tolls topping $1 million per vessel, and some 2,000 ships sat stranded in the Gulf at the April peak.
By the numbers:
Brent near $88 a barrel, down from a late-April peak around $126; energy accounted for more than 60% of May's monthly price increase, with headline inflation running at 4.2%
Far East–US West Coast spot rates up about 109% since Feb. 28, per Xeneta
Hapag-Lloyd's war-risk surcharge reached $1,500 per TEU, with emergency freight increases topping $3,000 per FEU on Gulf-linked lanes
US diesel near $5.21 a gallon, against a pre-war 2026 forecast of $3.43
War-risk insurance around 4% of hull value for a seven-day Hormuz policy — thousands of times the peacetime floor
What to watch: Whether Geneva happens Sunday. If it does, fuel-surcharge clauses become the first negotiation.
Chewy took a low-single-digit-millions fuel-surcharge hit in Q1 and guided to mid-single-digit millions in Q2; Walmart absorbed roughly $175 million in fuel costs last quarter. Those line items are the first money to come back.
