Four of the largest public less-than-truckload carriers reported May volumes in the same week, and while tonnage moved in four directions, every one of them held or raised pricing, firming the ground under any Q3 freight renewal.
The split (May tonnage):
Saia: +8.4%
ArcBest: +5%
XPO: +0.5%
Old Dominion: −3.8%
Rate over volume: Even while shedding freight, Old Dominion's revenue per hundredweight climbed 15.6% (5.4% excluding fuel), and ArcBest's rose 5%; XPO and Saia did not break out yield. ArcBest also guided its Q2 operating ratio to improve 600 to 700 basis points, roughly double a normal quarter's gain.
The carriers are taking price over volume, "rather than chasing volume with discounted pricing," AFS Logistics' Aaron LaGanke told Trucking Dive.
What it means for shippers: Soft demand is not winning shippers a discount this cycle. Even the carrier losing the most freight raised prices by double digits, a sign the pricing discipline is holding across the whole group.
For anyone renewing an LTL contract into the third quarter, that strips away the leverage a slow market usually brings, and it argues for locking rates ahead of the next general rate increase rather than waiting for volume weakness to soften carriers.
Across the sector: Whether the discipline lasts is the open question. Overcapacity still lingers in the network from the freight downturn, and Knight-Swift keeps building out LTL terminals, which could pressure pricing if demand stays weak. For now, the carriers are managing yield tightly enough that soft-volume headlines and firm pricing are pulling against each other.
Dig deeper:
The Truckload Cycle - how carriers push yield when tonnage is soft.
