US container imports are on track to hit 2.47 million TEU in July, up 3.3% from a year ago, and would set a new monthly record, according to NRF and Hackett Associates Global Port Tracker. It would beat the prior record of 2.4 million TEU set in May 2022.
The record comes in the same week ocean rates hit a 22-month high. Importers are paying peak-season freight rates while shipping record volumes.
Why now: Retailers are pulling orders forward ahead of expected August tariff increases. Temporary 10% Section 122 global tariffs, in effect since February, expire July 24. USTR has proposed replacing them with Section 301 “forced labor” duties of 10% to 12.5% across roughly 60 economies. The new duties stack on top of existing tariffs rather than replacing the expiring surcharge. That means goods that are not on the water before the deadline could face both the higher tariff rate and the new duty.
“This year’s early peak season is expected to continue through July as retailers and other importers prepare for potentially higher tariffs beginning in August and other trade uncertainties,” said Jonathan Gold, NRF’s VP of supply chain and customs policy.
The revised forecast: The previous Port Tracker release had projected July imports at 2.19 million TEU, which would have been a year-over-year decline. The latest update raised June's estimate and lifted July to a record. It also pushes the expected slowdown back by a month, and it's a steeper drop once it hits.
May: 2.24M TEU actual, up 14.9%
June: 2.33M TEU projected, up 18.7%
July: 2.47M TEU forecast, up 3.3%, the record
August: 2.22M TEU, down 4.5%
September: 1.99M, down 5.7%
The rate squeeze: Import volumes and ocean rates are usually inversely linked: as a peak season winds down, rates cool off. This time both are climbing together.
Drewry’s World Container Index sits at $4,639 per 40-foot container, up 2% in a week and the highest since September 2024. Shanghai to Los Angeles is at $6,482, while Shanghai to New York is at $7,904. Freightos says trans-Pacific rates have climbed by more than $3,000 per FEU since late May. Rates are now close to $6,700 to the US West Coast and nearly $9,000 to the East Coast.
What to watch: Freightos flags that demand may be peaking, which would mean the mid-July rate hikes carriers have filed may not hold. The import forecast already shows the front-loading unwinding after July 24, with imports falling below year-ago levels every month through November.
