US container imports are expected to peak in June, then decline each month through October. That sets up a compressed early Q3 for warehouse and freight teams, followed by softer demand to manage.
The numbers: The NRF and Hackett Associates Global Port Tracker, released June 8, forecasts June at 2.25M TEU, up 14.3% year over year, the highest monthly volume since 2022. The slide starts right after:
June: 2.25M TEU (+14.3%)
July: 2.19M (-8.4%)
August: 2.12M (-8.6%)
September: 2.06M (-2.2%)
October: 2.08M (+0.1%)
First-half 2026 still totals 12.6M TEU, up just 0.6% over last year. And the 14.3% June jump is flattered by its base: it is measured against a weak June 2025, when imports were still recovering from the post-“Liberation Day” tariff shock that gutted April 2025 volumes. The year-over-year line makes demand look stronger than it is.
What's actually happening: Retailers are front-loading. NRF’s Jonathan Gold tied the spike to merchandise “brought in early because of higher costs from tariffs or fuel prices that could come starting in August,” and said “the ongoing trend is for lower imports” as the conflict in Iran adds inflation and uncertainty. Hackett’s Ben Hackett expects the surge to “last into July,” followed by “a weakening in import volume.”
The operator stake: The freight arriving now is landing into already-tight capacity. The Conveyor’s earlier brief on Kuehne+Nagel flagged full warehouses and spiking spot rates during the same surge. Once the front-loaded volume clears, the July-to-October drop should ease pressure across 3PL, drayage and ocean pricing as demand thins.
What's next: How steep the drop gets depends on what tariff and fuel costs land in August. If the front-load was a one-time pull-forward, the back half remains soft and buyers gain leverage heading into Q4 contract negotiations.
