US steel imports are down 29.5% through April under the 50% Section 232 tariff, and the cost has landed on the buy side.
Hot-rolled coil hit $1,198 a short ton this week, up 39% in a year, and mill lead times are running a quarter out.
By the numbers: The US imported 1,874,000 net tons of steel in April. Finished imports are down 30.5% year to date and hold just 15% of the market. Domestic raw production has run the other way, up 6.8% to 38.9 million net tons.
Behind both numbers is Section 232, reimposed at 25% in February 2025, doubled to 50% last June, and extended in April to the full customs value of imported derivative products.
The buyer's math: HRC is at its highest since December 2023, a run that dates to late last year, when Nucor closed with nine consecutive weekly price increases.
Mills are booked into next quarter, spot availability is thin, and sheet inventories in March hit their lowest since June 2021. Even so, US product averages only about $34 a ton below landed import prices that include the tariff, so the full 50% duty is already priced into domestic quotes.
Across the sector: The tariff cost moved downstream as imports fell. Caterpillar expects a $2.2 billion to $2.4 billion tariff hit this fiscal year, and Deere booked $361 million in direct tariff costs in its fiscal first quarter. That absorbed cost gives mills their pricing power.
The catch: The import decline is narrowing. April arrivals rose 5.9% from March, and May permit filings trimmed the YTD decline to 27.5%. Steel Market Update reported some sheet buyers are re-running landed-cost math on imports despite the tariff.
What's next: The administration points to 4 million-plus tons of new domestic capacity within two years, including U.S. Steel's $1.9 billion DRI plant in Arkansas.
But Hyundai's $5.8 billion Louisiana mill won't produce commercially until around 2029, putting much of the promised relief years out. The nearer relief came by proclamation: a June update cut the 232 rate on agricultural equipment from 25% to 15%, in place through December 2027.
