The gap between Asia-North Europe and Asia-Mediterranean ocean spot rates has widened to $1,678 per 40ft container, with the Mediterranean lane running that much more expensive, according to a Sea-Intelligence analysis of Drewry’s World Container Index.
The gap has been wider only once in the index’s history. That happened during an eight-week stretch in 2022.
The two lanes aren’t usually this far apart. Carriers typically run bigger, cheaper-per-box ships on North Europe services, which keeps that lane relatively less expensive even though the Mediterranean sailing is shorter.
The numbers:
Shanghai-Rotterdam, a proxy for Asia-North Europe, is $4,682 per 40 ft container, up 7% week over week
Shanghai-Genoa, a proxy for Asia-Mediterranean, is $6,360 per 40 ft container, up 10% week over week
Subtracting the two matches Sea-Intelligence’s spread almost exactly
Spot rates have more than doubled on the Mediterranean lane and nearly tripled to North Europe since May
The Hormuz read: Sea-Intelligence ties the widening gap to the Strait of Hormuz crisis, now in its fifth month.
Cargo that would normally move efficiently is instead being rerouted “via the Mediterranean and down into the Red Sea from the north,” Sea-Intelligence said. That is putting more pressure on Mediterranean sailings rather than the wider Asia-Europe trade.
The gap has remained unusually wide and volatile since the pandemic disrupted shipping networks. Sea-Intelligence says this time the cause is different.
The other view: Freightos says July’s broader rise in freight rates is being driven by “surging peak season demand, not oil prices.”
Both analysts agree rates have risen sharply. They disagree on how much of the increase is driven by geopolitics versus seasonal demand.
The precedent: A similar Asia-Europe rate spike followed the sudden removal of steep China-US tariffs in mid-2025, and it normalized within weeks. “Not quite to 2025 levels yet, but resembling it,” Sea-Intelligence said. It expects the current spread to normalize on a similar timeline.
Maersk is separately working to restore Suez transits on one of its Asia-Europe services. Sea-Intelligence says the current spread reflects Hormuz-related cargo diversions rather than the pace of that capacity returning.
